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fix: handle insufficient hourly forecast errors - #1135
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Signed-off-by: Egor Dmitriev <egor.dmitriev@alliander.com> Signed-off-by: Egor Dmitriev <egor.dmitriev@alliander.com>
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egordm
added this pull request to stack #1137
October 12, 2026 08:04
lschilders
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## What does this PR do? Resolves scikit-learn warning failures that prevented the full local quality gate from passing: - Migrates the bundled splitter artifact by loading and reserializing it with the locked scikit-learn 1.9.1. The old and migrated artifacts produced bit-identical predictions on 260 deterministic inputs; the migrated artifact reloads without version warnings. The loading doctest and unit tests now exercise that clean load directly. - Remove fractional bootstrap sampling from the tiny imputer test and example datasets, avoiding scikit-learn small-sample warnings. - Keep the logistic-regression default as sklearn default rather than explicitly passing deprecated `penalty="l2"`; non-default penalties remain configurable without duplicating constructor setup. This PR is stacked on #1135 and should be merged after it. No linked issue. Validation: `uv run poe all --check` passes locally. The focused splitter/doctest/logistic checks also pass (7 tests). ## Type of change - [x] Bug fix - [ ] New feature - [ ] Breaking change (see checklist below) - [ ] Documentation - [ ] Refactor / chore / CI ## Breaking changes checklist - [ ] Public API, config schema, or serialized/pickled objects changed in a way that affects existing users - [ ] If yes: see the [breaking changes guide](https://openstef.github.io/openstef/contribute/development_workflow.html#breaking-changes) for the pickle/`_migrate_state` migration pattern Migration path for existing users: N/A. ## AI disclosure - [ ] No AI assistance was used (beyond grammar/spelling) - [x] AI assistance was used — tool(s): GitHub Copilot - [x] I have reviewed, understand, and can explain all AI-generated code in this PR - [ ] This is disclosed in a commit message (e.g. `Assisted-by: <tool name>`) ## Checklist - [x] `poe all --check` passes locally - [x] Tests added/updated for the change - [x] Documentation updated (docstrings, user guide, examples) if needed - [x] Commits are signed off per our [DCO](https://openstef.github.io/openstef/contribute/contributing_guide.html#signing-the-developer-certificate-of-origin-dco) (`git commit -s`) - [x] PR title follows [Conventional Commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/) (e.g. `feat: ...`, `fix: ...`, `feat!: ...` for breaking changes) --------- Signed-off-by: Egor Dmitriev <egor.dmitriev@alliander.com>
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What does this PR do?
Prevents sparse hourly residual groups from propagating NaN standard deviations into forecasts. Under-sampled hours use pooled residual variability from the same horizon. If pooled uncertainty cannot be estimated for any horizon, the applicator warns once and passes forecasts through unchanged.
Closes: No linked issue.
Validation: The focused applicator suite passes (9 tests), as do Ruff, formatting, and
ty.poe all --checkreports failures in the unrelatedLinearComponentSplitterandImputertests.Type of change
Breaking changes checklist
_migrate_statemigration patternMigration path for existing users: N/A.
AI disclosure
Assisted-by: <tool name>)Checklist
poe all --checkpasses locallygit commit -s)feat: ...,fix: ...,feat!: ...for breaking changes)