diff --git a/tsc/internal/ast/flow.go b/tsc/internal/ast/flow.go
index 43a4bc2f0dfea..739876adc1b38 100644
--- a/tsc/internal/ast/flow.go
+++ b/tsc/internal/ast/flow.go
@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 package ast
 
-import "unsafe"
+import (
+	"hash/maphash"
+	"unsafe"
+)
 
 // FlowFlags
 
@@ -27,10 +30,86 @@ const (
 // FlowNode
 
 type FlowNode struct {
-	Flags       FlowFlags
-	Node        *Node     // Associated AST node
-	Antecedent  *FlowNode // Antecedent for all but FlowLabel
-	Antecedents *FlowList // Linked list of antecedents for FlowLabel
+	Flags FlowFlags
+	// For assignment nodes, describes the identifier the assignment may target
+	// (see FlowAssignmentTargetHash). Fits in padding after Flags.
+	AssignmentTarget uint32
+	Node             *Node     // Associated AST node
+	Antecedent       *FlowNode // Antecedent for all but FlowLabel
+	Antecedents      *FlowList // Linked list of antecedents for FlowLabel
+}
+
+const (
+	// The assignment must be checked against every reference.
+	FlowAssignmentTargetUnknown uint32 = 0
+	// The assignment cannot target an identifier reference.
+	FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier uint32 = 1
+)
+
+// FlowAssignmentTargetAccess marks an AssignmentTarget whose target is a property
+// or element access chain rooted at the hashed identifier.
+const FlowAssignmentTargetAccess uint32 = 1 << 31
+
+var flowIdentifierHashSeed = maphash.MakeSeed()
+
+// FlowIdentifierHash hashes an identifier name for comparison with
+// FlowNode.AssignmentTarget. The result is never a reserved value and never
+// has FlowAssignmentTargetAccess set.
+func FlowIdentifierHash(name string) uint32 {
+	h := uint32(maphash.String(flowIdentifierHashSeed, name))
+	h &^= FlowAssignmentTargetAccess
+	if h <= FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier {
+		h += 2
+	}
+	return h
+}
+
+// FlowAssignmentTargetHash summarizes which references an assignment flow node
+// can affect, so that flow walks can skip assignments to unrelated names without
+// visiting their syntax. An identifier or declaration target records the hash of
+// its name. An access chain target records the hash of the identifier it is
+// rooted at, with FlowAssignmentTargetAccess set. This mirrors the checker's
+// matching of references against assignment targets, which only matches
+// references rooted at the same identifier.
+func FlowAssignmentTargetHash(target *Node) uint32 {
+	access := uint32(0)
+	for {
+		switch target.Kind {
+		case KindParenthesizedExpression, KindNonNullExpression:
+			target = target.Expression()
+			continue
+		case KindPropertyAccessExpression, KindElementAccessExpression:
+			access = FlowAssignmentTargetAccess
+			target = target.Expression()
+			continue
+		case KindBinaryExpression:
+			bin := target.AsBinaryExpression()
+			switch {
+			case IsAssignmentExpression(target, false):
+				target = bin.Left
+				continue
+			case bin.OperatorToken.Kind == KindCommaToken:
+				target = bin.Right
+				continue
+			}
+			return FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier
+		case KindIdentifier:
+			return FlowIdentifierHash(target.AsIdentifier().Text) | access
+		case KindVariableDeclaration, KindBindingElement:
+			if access != 0 {
+				return FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier
+			}
+			// A for-in variable also narrows the iterated expression.
+			if IsVariableDeclaration(target) && target.Parent != nil && target.Parent.Parent != nil && IsForInStatement(target.Parent.Parent) {
+				return FlowAssignmentTargetUnknown
+			}
+			if name := target.Name(); name != nil && IsIdentifier(name) {
+				return FlowIdentifierHash(name.AsIdentifier().Text)
+			}
+			return FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier
+		}
+		return FlowAssignmentTargetNotIdentifier
+	}
 }
 
 type FlowList struct {
diff --git a/tsc/internal/binder/binder.go b/tsc/internal/binder/binder.go
index a95bb19ecdff7..2eb5a9db6f60a 100644
--- a/tsc/internal/binder/binder.go
+++ b/tsc/internal/binder/binder.go
@@ -500,6 +500,9 @@ func (b *Binder) createFlowMutation(flags ast.FlowFlags, antecedent *ast.FlowNod
 	setFlowNodeReferenced(antecedent)
 	b.hasFlowEffects = true
 	result := b.newFlowNodeEx(flags, node, antecedent)
+	if flags&ast.FlowFlagsAssignment != 0 {
+		result.AssignmentTarget = ast.FlowAssignmentTargetHash(node)
+	}
 	if b.currentExceptionTarget != nil {
 		b.addAntecedent(b.currentExceptionTarget, result)
 	}
diff --git a/tsc/internal/checker/flow.go b/tsc/internal/checker/flow.go
index d2831231772fe..f0d4433161442 100644
--- a/tsc/internal/checker/flow.go
+++ b/tsc/internal/checker/flow.go
@@ -43,6 +43,8 @@ type FlowState struct {
 	initialType     *Type
 	flowContainer   *ast.Node
 	refKey          CacheHashKey
+	refNameHash     uint32 // FlowIdentifierHash of the identifier a reference is rooted at, else 0
+	refIsAccess     bool   // Whether the reference is an access chain rooted at that identifier
 	depth           int
 	sharedFlowStart int
 	reduceLabels    []*ast.FlowReduceLabelData
@@ -94,6 +96,7 @@ func (c *Checker) getFlowTypeOfReferenceEx(reference *ast.Node, declaredType *Ty
 	f.initialType = core.Coalesce(initialType, declaredType)
 	f.flowContainer = flowContainer
 	f.sharedFlowStart = len(c.sharedFlows)
+	f.refNameHash, f.refIsAccess = getFlowReferenceRootHash(reference)
 	c.flowInvocationCount++
 	evolvedType := c.getTypeAtFlowNode(f, flowNode).t
 	c.sharedFlows = c.sharedFlows[:f.sharedFlowStart]
@@ -114,6 +117,31 @@ func (c *Checker) getFlowTypeOfReferenceEx(reference *ast.Node, declaredType *Ty
 	return resultType
 }
 
+// getFlowReferenceRootHash returns the FlowIdentifierHash of the identifier a reference
+// is rooted at, and whether the reference is an access chain on it. An identifier is
+// only affected by assignments to that identifier. An access chain is also affected by
+// assignments to access chains rooted at it. Other references return zero and are
+// matched against every assignment.
+func getFlowReferenceRootHash(reference *ast.Node) (uint32, bool) {
+	isAccess := false
+	for {
+		switch reference.Kind {
+		case ast.KindIdentifier:
+			if ast.IsThisInTypeQuery(reference) {
+				return 0, false
+			}
+			return ast.FlowIdentifierHash(reference.Text()), isAccess
+		case ast.KindPropertyAccessExpression, ast.KindElementAccessExpression:
+			isAccess = true
+			reference = reference.Expression()
+		case ast.KindParenthesizedExpression, ast.KindNonNullExpression, ast.KindSatisfiesExpression:
+			reference = reference.Expression()
+		default:
+			return 0, false
+		}
+	}
+}
+
 func (c *Checker) getTypeAtFlowNode(f *FlowState, flow *ast.FlowNode) FlowType {
 	if f.depth == 2000 {
 		// We have made 2000 recursive invocations. To avoid overflowing the call stack we report an error
@@ -144,6 +172,12 @@ func (c *Checker) getTypeAtFlowNode(f *FlowState, flow *ast.FlowNode) FlowType {
 		var t FlowType
 		switch {
 		case flags&ast.FlowFlagsAssignment != 0:
+			if f.refNameHash != 0 && flow.AssignmentTarget != ast.FlowAssignmentTargetUnknown &&
+				(flow.AssignmentTarget != f.refNameHash && (!f.refIsAccess || flow.AssignmentTarget != f.refNameHash|ast.FlowAssignmentTargetAccess)) {
+				// The assignment is rooted at a different name, so it cannot affect this reference.
+				flow = flow.Antecedent
+				continue
+			}
 			t = c.getTypeAtFlowAssignment(f, flow)
 			if t.isNil() {
 				flow = flow.Antecedent