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Jameson Lopp (Casa CTO) authored BIP-361 (PR #1895), which ties legacy-signature
sunset rules to supply inflation guardrails. Active since July 2025. First Bitcoin
Core contributor to frame quantum migration as both a cryptographic AND monetary
policy question.
Source: bitcoin/bips#1895
"critical_context": "Google Quantum AI (March 31, 2026): <500k physical qubits break ECDSA-256 in ~9 min — inside Bitcoin's block time. 20x easier than 2019 estimates. ~37% of BTC supply in quantum-vulnerable P2PK addresses. Zero public upgrade roadmap. Zero top developer response within 48 hours of the Google paper. BIP-360 merged but no activation timeline. Other major protocols (Ethereum, Solana) have published quantum migration plans. Bitcoin has not.",
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"key_insight": "Bitcoin is sleepwalking into a quantum crisis. Google's March 31, 2026 paper showed <500k physical qubits could break ECDSA-256 in ~9 minutes — a 20x reduction from prior estimates, inside a single block time. ~37% of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses with exposed public keys. Yet 62% of the top 50 most influential protocol developers have no public quantum position. The dismissive camp outnumbers the urgent camp nearly 3-to-1. No current Core maintainer scores above a 2. Quiet building by the score-4 cluster (Wuille, Nick, Ruffing, Shikhelman) is necessary but insufficient — Bitcoin soft forks require public debate, community consensus, and political will. None of that is happening. BIP-360 exists but has no activation timeline. Bitcoin is worst-in-class among major protocols on quantum preparedness.",
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"critical_context": "Google Quantum AI (March 31, 2026): <500k physical qubits break ECDSA-256 in ~9 min \u2014 inside Bitcoin's block time. 20x easier than 2019 estimates. ~37% of BTC supply in quantum-vulnerable P2PK addresses. Zero public upgrade roadmap. Zero top developer response within 48 hours of the Google paper. BIP-360 merged but no activation timeline. Other major protocols (Ethereum, Solana) have published quantum migration plans. Bitcoin has not.",
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"key_insight": "Bitcoin is sleepwalking into a quantum crisis. Google's March 31, 2026 paper showed <500k physical qubits could break ECDSA-256 in ~9 minutes \u2014 a 20x reduction from prior estimates, inside a single block time. ~37% of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses with exposed public keys. Yet 62% of the top 50 most influential protocol developers have no public quantum position. The dismissive camp outnumbers the urgent camp nearly 3-to-1. No current Core maintainer scores above a 2. Quiet building by the score-4 cluster (Wuille, Nick, Ruffing, Shikhelman) is necessary but insufficient \u2014 Bitcoin soft forks require public debate, community consensus, and political will. None of that is happening. BIP-360 exists but has no activation timeline. Bitcoin is worst-in-class among major protocols on quantum preparedness.",
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"x_source_note": "X/Twitter post dates confirmed via snowflake ID decoding. Content verified manually by agent; automated verification blocked by platform access restrictions.",
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"quantum_readiness_index": {
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"voiced_urgency": {
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"score": 65,
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"description": "Among the 26 developers who have made verifiable public statements, the weighted average urgency is 65/100. Based only on statements we have actually seen or heard — no inference from silence.",
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"description": "Among the 26 developers who have made verifiable public statements, the weighted average urgency is 65/100. Based only on statements we have actually seen or heard \u2014 no inference from silence.",
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"voices_count": 26,
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"weighted_sum": 84,
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"max_possible": 130
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},
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"coverage": {
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"score": 49,
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"description": "26 of 53 assessed developers (49%) have a verifiable public position on quantum risk. The other 27 have said nothing. Silence is not a data point — it is a gap.",
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"description": "26 of 53 assessed developers (49%) have a verifiable public position on quantum risk. The other 27 have said nothing. Silence is not a data point \u2014 it is a gap.",
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"voiced": 26,
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"silent": 27,
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"total": 53
@@ -56,11 +56,11 @@
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"score": 32,
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"formula": "Voiced Urgency (65) multiplied by Coverage (49%) = 32/100. A high urgency score means nothing if almost nobody is talking. Both numbers must rise for Bitcoin to be quantum-ready.",
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"interpretation": {
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"0_20": "Asleep — negligible awareness or engagement",
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"20_40": "Sleepwalking — a few voices, minimal collective action",
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"40_60": "Awakening — broad debate beginning, early preparation",
"summary": "Published compound probability framework April 3, 2026: P(CRQC by 2030) × P(Bitcoin fails to upgrade) ≥5% existential risk. Calls for prioritizing PQ design now. First non-BIP-360-author, non-Blockstream researcher to cross into the proactive camp.",
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"summary": "Published compound probability framework April 3, 2026: P(CRQC by 2030) \u00d7 P(Bitcoin fails to upgrade) \u22655% existential risk. Calls for prioritizing PQ design now. First non-BIP-360-author, non-Blockstream researcher to cross into the proactive camp.",
"summary": "Authored BIP-361 (PR #1895): ties legacy-signature sunset rules to supply inflation guardrails. Explicitly frames quantum migration as both cryptographic and monetary policy question. Active BIP contributor since July 2025.",
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